Butler Decision: Worst call ever?

How sensitive was Seattle’s goal-line decision to interception risk? This calculator does not try to find one true number. It looks for the break-even point where pass first stops being the rational choice under a simple set of assumptions.

It compares a pass-first sequence (pass → run → run) to a run-first sequence (run → run).

Assumption

Expected interception risk

Move the slider to test how much Carroll’s prior about pick risk would need to worsen before running first becomes the better call.

0% Baseline: ~0.9% Break-even: 13.4% 50%
Current input
Pass First Win
Run First Win
Grade
Takeaway
Pass First
Run First
Interception Rate
White marker = estimated break-even interception risk where pass first and run first are roughly equal.
Method

What this model assumes

The point is not to pretend we know one true interception probability. The point is to find the fulcrum — the tipping point where pass first stops being the better choice under a transparent, simplified play tree.

Source

Basic calculation note

Touchdown assumptions are drawn from ESPN’s discussion of Seattle’s goal-line decision and then held constant here to isolate the interception-risk question.

Source: Inside Seattle’s decision to pass from the 1

Under this setup, run first wins about , while pass first declines as interception risk rises until the break-even point lands around 13.4%.